Global economy to stage vigorous recovery; jobs growth to lag

The global economy will recover this year from its coronavirus slump at a pace not seen since the 1970s as strong momentum builds in most major economies, according to Reuters polls of over 500 economists.

That optimism was largely led by the widely expected vaccine-driven recovery, massive liquidity injections, unprecedented fiscal support - primarily by the United States, with more in the pipeline - and continued adaptation of economic activity to overcome subdued mobility.

With many countries still facing challenges from the pandemic, when asked on the likelihood of a renewed spike in coronavirus cases derailing the global economic recovery this year, economists were split in the Reuters polls taken over the past month. (Interactive graphic tracking global spread of coronavirus: open https://tmsnrt.rs/2FThSv7 in an external browser)

But 2021 growth views for 55% of 44 economies polled on were upgraded from three months ago, led by the U.S. economy - which was predicted to mark the fastest annual expansion since 1984 - and China, set to return to pre-crisis levels this year.

"A synchronised global economic recovery is underway, notwithstanding the continuing battle against COVID-19. Every economy we cover is projected to register a meaningful rebound in annual average GDP growth this year," noted Janet Henry, global chief economist at HSBC.

"Much will depend on whether governments prefer a strategy of eliminating or suppressing the pandemic; access to effective vaccines; the structure of the economy; the willingness of households to spend their accumulated savings; and the scale and mix of policy stimulus."

Source: Reuters

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