Payroll numbers rise but under-25s hit hardest

  • 3 years   ago

The number of workers on company payrolls in the UK climbed by 200,000 in the three months to February, amid signs that the jobs crisis may be stabilising.

However, the number on payrolls is still 693,000 lower than last February, before Covid lockdown measures began.

 

People aged under 25 continue to bear the brunt of the job losses, the Office for National Statistics said.

It came as the unemployment rate stood at 5%, down from 5.1% previously.

Sam Beckett, ONS head of economic statistics, told the BBC's Today programme there was still a lot of uncertainty in the jobs market.

"Furlough is still doing a lot of heavy lifting in the labour market. There are around five million people still on furlough, it's down from its peak of nine million but has been rising recently.

"But you have to remember the underlying picture is that close to 700,000 people have come off the payroll since the start of the pandemic so there has been a large fall in employment since the start

"Young people have borne much of the brunt, around two-thirds of the fall is under-25s. London has been particularly hard hit."

Crisis easing?

The latest figures cover a period when most parts of the UK entered strict lockdowns.

However, the number of workers on payroll increased for the third month in a row in February, the ONS said.

The number of redundancies across the UK also fell slightly to 11 per 1,000 people in January - down from 14 per 1,000 two months previously.

Despite this, the ONS said the jobs crisis remained acute, with 1.7 million people out of work - around a five-year high.

The hospitality industry has been hit particularly hard, with 368,000 payroll jobs lost since before the pandemic began.

In addition, 123,000 payroll jobs have also been lost in the hard-hit retail sector.

Nonetheless, commentators said they believed the worst may soon be over as the vaccine programme gradually allows the UK economy to reopen.

"Overall, we think employment is getting close to its trough," said Ruth Gregory, senior UK economist at Capital Economics. "We still expect the unemployment rate to rise to 6% by early 2022, but the bulk of that will be driven by those who left the labour force returning, rather than people losing their jobs."

It echoes projections from the government's fiscal watchdog, the Office for Budget Responsibility, which has forecast that the unemployment rate will peak at 6.5% this year instead of the 11.9% predicted last July.

Becky O'Connor, head of pensions and savings at Interactive Investor, said the latest data showed "chinks of light" but that the impact of the crisis would be felt for some time to come.

"Even as work opportunities return, people who have lost their jobs or part of their income will need continued support as the economy opens back up.

"If the doors to work reopen for those people, their decimated personal finances from a year of lost income will take far longer to get back off the ground."

According to official figures, the UK economy shrank by 2.9% in January amid the third lockdown, as restaurants and non-essential shops were shuttered.

But the drop was much smaller than expected, suggesting businesses have adapted to trading in lockdown.

It has added to growing expectations that the recovery will be stronger than previously expected. Last week, the Bank of England said it expected a rebound this year. although it cautioned the outlook was still "unusually uncertain".

"It continues to depend on the evolution of the pandemic, measures taken to protect public health, and how households, businesses and financial markets respond to these developments," a statement from the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee said.

Source: BBC

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