Qatar’s government revenue has yet to recover to a level it reached seven years ago, before the last oil crash, after slumping more than 30% in 2016.

The International Monetary Fund isn’t backing away from its view that Qatar could pull off a budget feat only a handful of nations might accomplish this year.

In the IMF’s assessment, the world’s biggest exporter of liquefied natural gas is on track for another year in the black, with a surplus that the fund says will reach just above 5% of economic output — a level three other countries may exceed in 2020.

By comparison, S&P Global Ratings last week forecast that Qatar will record a shortfall averaging about 5% of gross domestic product during 2020-2023. Given the slump in energy prices and the rising costs of the pandemic, most of Qatar’s neighbors could see fiscal deficits in double digits this year.

As it wraps up projects ahead of the soccer World Cup in 2022, Qatar is scaling back capital spending without sustaining too much damage yet to its revenue, according to Ali Al-Eyd, the IMF’s mission chief in the country. It’s an even more upbeat outlook than when the government began the year with a plan to run a slight surplus on the assumption that oil will average $55 a barrel, or nearly double its current level.

“There has been a reduction in capital expenditure,” Al-Eyd said in an interview. “So they continue to spend on capital needs to meet the World Cup target deadline and other ongoing projects. But they’re reducing capital expenditure elsewhere.”

Much of Qatar’s stimulus response to the crisis has so far been “heavily liquidity-based,” with smaller commitments from the budget, according to Al-Eyd. And unlike other Gulf nations that depend on oil, Qatar is more reliant on revenue from gas, benefiting from the longer-term nature of LNG contracts. The IMF projects its LNG production will be only slightly lower than last year’s output.

“They reduce their expenditure and they largely sustain the revenue,” Al-Eyd said. “The revenue impact of lower oil prices will be felt more next year.”